Russian oil exports are down 50% as western oil price cap takes effect. However, the drop is due to unintended consequences of the price cap, as the price cap is not even in effect since Russia continues to sell oil at a price under the cap. The price cap is also causing problems for other nations who were not meant to be targets of the sanctions.
> Some of the decline is due to ongoing work at a port in the Baltic which is now completed.
> Kazakhstan is struggling to export its oil as Turkey refuses to let tankers through its waters because their Western insurers refuse to cover sanctions violations.
> Exxon Mobil is refusing to use tankers who previously transported Russian oil leading to a shortage of tankers willing to move the crude.
> Nations that rely on Russian oil (including the EU) are going to see higher prices and could see shortages if the disruptions continue.
Analyst Comment: Russia is assembling a shadow fleet of new tankers to bypass some of these difficulties. Many nations are not on board with the sanctions including China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and India. These nations will be happy to help Russia work around the sanctions as long as it is profitable for them. But this is going to backfire tremendously on the EU. The EU is still highly reliant on Russian crude and natural gas and continues to import it both directly and indirectly, buying it through China and India who in turn, purchase it from Russia. Any disruptions will cause already expensive energy to become even more expensive. The EU is committing energy suicide.